Close X
Thursday, January 9, 2025
ADVT 
National

Possible scenarios that could play out in Ottawa as the Liberal government teeters

Darpan News Desk The Canadian Press, 02 Jan, 2025 03:19 PM
  • Possible scenarios that could play out in Ottawa as the Liberal government teeters

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is said to be reflecting on his future over the holidays after the resignation of his top cabinet minister, Chrystia Freeland, in mid-December. The bombshell move prompted a fresh wave of calls for Trudeau to step down as Liberal leader from inside and outside the caucus.

With MPs set to return to the House of Commons on Jan. 27, the Liberal grip on power appears tenuous. The NDP, which has been a steady ally of the minority government since the 2021 election, is no longer planning to support the Liberals.

Here is a look at some of the scenarios that could play out in coming weeks:

Prorogation

Regardless of whether Trudeau resigns as Liberal leader, the government could seek prorogation to end all House of Commons business.

If Gov. Gen. Mary Simon honours the prorogation request, all outstanding legislation effectively dies on the order paper. 

Once the House reconvenes, a new throne speech would set out the government's fresh legislative agenda. In addition, legislation that was in progress before prorogation could potentially be revived.

In 2008, then-prime minister Stephen Harper notably prorogued Parliament shortly before a non-confidence vote that could have seen his minority Conservative government defeated and replaced by an NDP-Liberal coalition supported by the Bloc Québécois. 

Non-confidence vote

The Conservatives, Bloc Québécois and NDP all say they are ready to bring down the Liberal government through a non-confidence vote. 

Passage of a non-confidence motion in the House of Commons could trigger an immediate election campaign. 

An opportunity to defeat the government could come as soon as Jan. 30, prompted by New Brunswick Conservative MP John Williamson's plan to advance a motion through the public accounts committee.

Williamson says he intends to introduce a non-confidence motion at the Conservative-chaired committee's next meeting on Jan. 7. Williamson says he would continue scheduling meetings throughout January if Liberal committee members filibuster the motion. 

If the motion is successful, Williamson says, it would be forwarded to the House of Commons for further debate, and could be up for a vote as soon as Jan. 30. 

The Liberals have survived previous Conservative non-confidence motions with support from the NDP. It appears that will no longer be the case. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says his party will bring forward its own non-confidence motion at the earliest possible time, no matter who is Liberal leader. 

The Conservatives, NDP, and Bloc Québécois will all get opposition days before March 26, when they are allowed to introduce business like non-confidence motions. 

However, it’s up to the government House leader to schedule those days, so they may not take place before mid-to-late March. 

Liberal leadership

If Trudeau heeds the calls to resign as Liberal leader, it will trigger a contest to succeed him. 

According to the Liberal party constitution, the party executive has to call a meeting within 27 days of the leader's resignation to establish rules and infrastructure for a leadership contest. 

A provision in the constitution says the Liberal caucus can be consulted on who becomes the interim leader. A Dec. 23 letter from the party's Atlantic caucus urges Trudeau to step down and calls for caucus consultation in the event of a leadership race.

There is no rule in the constitution dictating how long a leadership contest has to be, but candidates must gather the necessary signatures and deliver a written nomination letter to the party president at least 90 days ahead of the vote.

A registered Liberal is defined as someone who has been a party member for 41 days before the vote and complies with registration requirements. 

All registered members get a vote, with the ballots weighted equally for each electoral district in Canada. Each district is worth 100 points.

Trudeau stays on

There is no mechanism within the Liberal party for caucus to remove Trudeau as leader in this circumstance, so the decision to stay or go rests solely with him. 

If Trudeau tries to weather the storm he could lead the party into the next election, which must take place by October. Given the opposition parties' pledge to trigger an early election, Canadians could be going to the polls much sooner.

The Liberals appear to have a tough road ahead in trying to secure a fourth mandate, with public opinion polls suggesting the Conservatives have held a sizable lead for over a year.

MORE National ARTICLES

The Latest: Justin Trudeau shuffles his cabinet as his future remains in question

The Latest: Justin Trudeau shuffles his cabinet as his future remains in question
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is shuffling his cabinet today, filling vacancies left by Liberals who have left their posts or don't plan to run in the next federal election. The shuffle comes after Chrystia Freeland's resignation as finance minister and deputy prime minister sent shock waves in Canadian politics and intensified calls for the prime minister to step down.

The Latest: Justin Trudeau shuffles his cabinet as his future remains in question

Suspect arrested in ATM theft

Suspect arrested in ATM theft
Kelowna R-C-M-P have a suspect in custody in connection to an A-T-M theft at a business earlier this month. R-C-M-P say a male suspect, who's known to police, is believed to be responsible after he and a female suspect were seen using the same stolen pickup truck used in the "brazen" robbery. 

Suspect arrested in ATM theft

Break & enter investigation in Maple Ridge

Break & enter investigation in Maple Ridge
Police in Maple Ridge have seized stolen firearms, jewellery, and illegal drugs in relation to a break and enter investigation. Ridge Meadows R-C-M-P say they responded to a report of a break and enter back in November at a home in Maple Ridge and the alleged suspects were identified. 

Break & enter investigation in Maple Ridge

Arrest in smuggling operation: CBSA

Arrest in smuggling operation: CBSA
The Canada Border Services Agency says a 34-year-old Vancouver resident has been arrested for their suspected involvement in a cigarette smuggling operation. It says an investigation into the operation was launched in February after C-B-S-A officers intercepted numerous contraband cigarette shipments at Vancouver International Airport Commercial Operations and the Vancouver International Mail Centre.

Arrest in smuggling operation: CBSA

Landslide on tracks stops Amtrak passenger runs between Seattle and Vancouver

Landslide on tracks stops Amtrak passenger runs between Seattle and Vancouver
A landslide that blocked railway tracks has stopped Amtrak passenger service between Vancouver and Seattle. Amtrak says in a statement Thursday that the landslide near White Rock, B.C., led Burlington Northern Santa Fa Railway to place a 48-hour moratorium on passenger service. 

Landslide on tracks stops Amtrak passenger runs between Seattle and Vancouver

Emissions in Canada fell last year, though still far off Paris targets

Emissions in Canada fell last year, though still far off Paris targets
For the first time since the pandemic, Canada had a year-over-year decline in its greenhouse gas emissions — though it is still a long way off its 2030 target. A preliminary emissions report Thursday from the federal government shows greenhouse gases emitted in 2023 fell by six million tonnes compared to 2022, the equivalent to what about 1.4 million passenger vehicles emit over the course of a year.

Emissions in Canada fell last year, though still far off Paris targets