OTTAWA - Prime Minister Stephen Harper is embarking on a combat mission in Iraq with no political cover should anything go awry.
New Democrats and Liberals refused Friday to support Harper's decision to join in airstrikes against the extremist Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), which has been committing atrocities in northern Iraq.
Harper appeared to anticipate going it alone, telling the House of Commons: "I do this recognizing that in a democracy, especially one approaching an election, there is rarely political upside in supporting any kind of military action and little risk in opposing it."
The risk for Harper comes not at the outset of the mission. Indeed, one public opinion poll has pegged initial support for airstrikes at almost two-thirds of Canadians.
However, as Liberal and Conservative governments discovered during the 12-year combat mission in Afghanistan, public opinion can sour quickly if Canadian lives are lost or a conflict is perceived to be dragging on without any obvious success.
For opposition parties, the risk is that the mission does, in fact, turn out to be a quick in-and-out affair that leaves ISIL in tatters. They're betting the chances of that are near zero.
Opposition parties are convinced Harper can't stick to his promise that the mission will be "for a period of up to six months" and won't be allowed to turn into "a prolonged quagmire." The promise rang all the more hollow to opposition MPs when, in the next breath, Harper revealed the airstrikes could be expanded to include bombing ISIL insurgents in Syria.
"From mission creep to mission leap," quipped NDP Leader Tom Mulcair.
Mulcair noted that the U.S. has been trying unsuccessfully to defeat Islamic extremists in Iraq, "under one name or another," since its "wrong-headed" invasion in 2003.
"The prime minister insists that this mission in Iraq will not be allowed to become a quagmire but is that not precisely what our American allies have been facing in Iraq for the last 10 years? Will Canada be stuck a decade from now mired in a war we wisely avoided entering a decade ago?"
Mulcair had been clear from the outset that the NDP was highly unlikely to support any combat mission. New Democrats had refused to support even a non-combat role for several dozen special forces members sent to help advise Iraqi forces for a 30-day period.
Justin Trudeau's 36 Liberal MPs had been the likeliest source of political cover for Harper, having backed the non-combat mission.
But Liberal sympathies shifted subtly last week after former Liberal prime minister Jean Chretien warned that involving Canadian forces in Iraq, even in a non-combat role, could suck Canada into a decades-long conflict.
Chretien's popularity soared when he chose to keep Canada out of the 2003 Iraq war.
Liberal sympathies shifted even more noticeably after Harper used a New York audience to reveal that the United States had asked Canada to make a greater, combat-specific contribution to the fight against ISIL.
Having backed the non-combat role, insiders say Liberals were surprised that Harper made no effort to brief them on the U.S. request or to make the case for joining other nations in conducting airstrikes. The secrecy left Liberals distrustful of Harper's motives and fearful that there really was no coherent plan to eradicate ISIL, other than to be seen to be doing something.
Trudeau signalled his intention to oppose a combat mission in a speech to a think-tank conference on Thursday. He repeated big chunks of that speech in the Commons on Friday.
"We know there is a role for Canada to be involved in the fight against ISIL but there is a clear line between non-combat and combat roles," he said.
"It is much easier to cross that line than to cross back. It is always easier to get into a war than to get out of one."
In the past, Liberals have frequently been torn over Canada's role in combat missions, splitting into hawks and doves over Afghanistan, for instance. But this time, insiders insist distrust of Harper left the caucus united in its opposition to a combat role in Iraq.
Green party Leader Elizabeth May also voiced her opposition to a combat mission, arguing that provoking a military response is a precisely what Islamic extremists want to fuel hatred for western nations.
"What kind of barbaric terrorist organization beheads westerners and puts it on YouTube unless their exact goal is to get us to do what we are now doing and engage militarily in the region?"
Couillard backs Canada role against ISIL
QUEBEC - Quebec Premier Philippe Couillard says he approves of a military combat mission by Canada in the Middle East.
Couillard, who is the father of a soldier, expressed his support shortly before Prime Minister Stephen Harper laid out his case in Parliament on Friday for Canadian participation in air strikes in Iraq.
Harper also said there would be no ground combat role although Canada has already contributed special forces advisers to the war against the militant group known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.
Couillard said Canada must live up to its obligations and called ISIL a movement that has drawn international condemnation.
"The international community expects that Canada will play a role, clearly," Couillard told reporters.
He said ISIL represents a major menace to the western world, including Canada.
"This is a significant threat to our society and Canada and Quebec are part of that landscape," he noted. "Let us not be so naive that we think because Quebecers have been fortunate enough to live in peace for centuries that we're immune to this risk. The risks also exist for us.
"These murderous movements are mobile, they are imaginative in the worst sense and they won't hesitate to attack those they consider enemies, which are democratic societies."
He said doing nothing to counter the threat is not a viable option.
The premier, who worked in Saudi Arabia as a doctor in the 1990s, expressed concern about the actions of the Islamic state and its allies.
However, Couillard said Ottawa must be transparent about its plans.
"When we send our young people to risk their lives, we must be able to tell people what the objective is, who the enemy is, what the definition of victory is and what are the rules of engagement," he said.
"The federal government needs to communicate this."
Quotes about Canada's mission in Iraq
A selection of quotes from Friday's statements in the House of Commons as Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced a motion that would see Canada join allies in a campaign of airstrikes against militants in Iraq:
"Let me be clear on the objectives of this intervention. We intend to significantly degrade the capabilities of ISIL, specifically, its ability to either engage in military movements of scale, or to operate bases in the open." — Harper.
"Let me assure Canadians that the government is seized with the necessity of avoiding a prolonged quagmire in this part of the world. ... Indeed, we and our allies are acting now precisely to avoid a situation that was clearly headed to a wider, protracted and much more dangerous conflict." — Harper
"I urge all members to consider and to support the motion we have presented. I do this in recognizing that in a democracy, especially one approaching an election, there is rarely political upside in supporting any kind of military action and little risk in opposing it." — Harper.
"ISIS has thrived in Iraq and Syria precisely because those countries lack stable, well-functioning governments capable of maintaining peace and security within their own borders. Canada's first contribution should be to use every diplomatic, humanitarian and financial resource at our disposal to respond to the overwhelming human tragedy unfolding on the ground and strengthen political institutions in both those countries." — NDP Leader Tom Mulcair.
"The prime minister insists that this mission in Iraq will not be allowed to become a 'quagmire.' But isn't that precisely what our American allies have been facing in Iraq for the last ten years? Will Canada be stuck a decade from now, mired in a war we wisely avoided entering a decade ago?" — Mulcair.
"Unlike the prime minister, Liberals believe Canada can make a more helpful contribution to the international effort to combat ISIL than aging war planes." — Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.
"I think Canadians have a lot more to offer than that. We can be resourceful, and there are significant, substantial, non-combat roles that Canada can play." — Trudeau.
"The Liberal party of Canada cannot and will not support this prime minister's motion to go to war in Iraq." — Trudeau.
"In this region of the world, if there was ever proof for the adage that the road to hell is paved with good intentions, we have it in spades." — Green party Leader Elizabeth May.
"I completely support all of the prime minister's intentions. We cannot allow these horrific crimes go unanswered. But we must make sure whatever we do doesn't make matters worse." — May.
