The Bank of Canada delivered a supersized interest rate cut Wednesday in response to the recent decline in inflation, bringing its key policy rate down by half a percentage point to 3.75 per cent.
With annual price growth now around two per cent, the central bank says its job has shifted from lowering inflation to maintaining it around the inflation target.
“We took a bigger step today because inflation is now back to the two per cent target and we want to keep it close to the target,” Governor Macklem said in his opening statement.
Canada’s inflation rate fell to 1.6 per cent in September, solidifying forecasters’ expectations for a larger rate cut. Bigger cuts mean the rate can be lowered faster.
Wednesday marked the central bank’s fourth consecutive interest rate cut since June. Its policy rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from a height of five per cent.
The Bank of Canada attributes the slowdown in price growth to shelter price inflation easing, supply outpacing demand in the economy and global oil pricing falling.
It’s now forecasting inflation will remain around the two per cent target throughout its projection horizon, which extends to 2026.
High interest rates have sent a chill through the Canadian economy, slowing growth and loosening the labour market.
The central bank says in its monetary policy report that while layoffs have remained stable, businesses have pulled back on hiring, which has disproportionately affected young people and newcomers.
As interest rates continue to come down, the Bank of Canada is projecting economic growth to pick back up in 2025 and 2026.
Macklem said the central bank expects cutting its key interest rate further, so long as the economy evolves in line with its forecast.
“High inflation and interest rates have been a heavy burden for Canadians. With inflation now back to target and interest rates continuing to come down, families, businesses and communities should feel some relief,” Macklem said.
A look at what people are saying about the Bank of Canada's rate decision
The Bank of Canada cut its key policy interest rate by 50 basis points on Wednesday to bring it to 3.75 per cent. Here's what people are saying about the decision:
"High inflation and interest rates have been a heavy burden for Canadians. With inflation now back to target and interest rates continuing to come down, families, businesses and communities should feel some relief." — Tiff Macklem, Bank of Canada governor.
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"Activity in Canada’s housing market has been sluggish in many regions due to higher borrowing costs, but today’s more aggressive cut to lending rates could cause the tide to turn quickly. For those with variable rate mortgages – who will benefit from the rate drop immediately – or those with fast-approaching loan renewals, today’s announcement is welcome news indeed." — Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage.
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"This won't be the end of rate cuts. Even with the succession of policy cuts since June, rates are still way too high given the state of the economy. To bring rates into better balance, we have another 150 bps in cuts pencilled in through 2025. So while the pace of cuts going forward is now highly uncertain, the direction for rates is firmly downwards." — James Orlando, director and senior economist at TD Bank.
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"The size of the December rate cut will depend on upcoming job and inflation data, but a 25 basis point cut remains our baseline." — Tu Nguyen, economist with assurance, tax and consultancy firm RSM Canada.
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"Today's outsized rate cut is mostly a response to the heavy-duty decline in headline inflation in the past few months. However, the underlying forecast and the Bank's mild tone suggest that the future default moves will be 25 bp steps, unless growth and/or inflation surprise again to the downside." — Douglas Porter, chief economist at Bank of Montreal.
