The verdict of U.S. voters was more decisive than most pundits and analysts had predicted. Now the world waits to see whether the election of Donald Trump as president for a second time is as destabilizing many American allies fear.
Trump secured victory Wednesday after surpassing the 270 electoral college votes needed to win. In a victory speech before the official declaration, he vowed to “put our country first” and bring about a “golden age” for America.
Trump’s first term saw him insult and alienate many of the United States’ longstanding allies. His return to the White House, four years after losing office to President Joe Biden, has huge consequences for everything from global trade to climate change to multiple crises and conflicts around the world.
Trump has pledged to ramp up a tariff feud with China, the United States’ growing economic and strategic rival. In the Middle East, Trump has pledged, without saying how, to end the conflicts between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah. He has also vowed to end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking office – something Ukraine and its supporters fear would be on terms favorable to Moscow.
Here’s how leaders and others around the world are reacting:
NATO is nervous and Ukraine is anxious
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte congratulated Trump, saying – likely more in hope than in certainty – that “I look forward to working with him again to advance peace through strength through NATO” in the face of “a growing number of challenges globally,” including “the increasing alignment of China, Russia, North Korea and Iran.”
I just congratulated @realDonaldTrump on his election as President of the United States. His leadership will again be key to keeping our Alliance strong. I look forward to working with him again to advance peace through strength through #NATO.
— Mark Rutte (@SecGenNATO) November 6, 2024
Trump was a strong critic of the North Atlantic military alliance during his first term, accusing its other members of failing to pull their weight. Earlier this year he said the United States would not defend NATO members that don’t meet defense spending targets.
Rutte emphasized the positive, praising Trump for his work persuading member states to ramp up defense spending and saying NATO was now “stronger, larger, and more united.”
America’s allies are – belatedly, some say – grappling with what to do if they cannot depend on the U.S. for their defense. Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, said it’s not just NATO. Washington's other allies in the Indo-Pacific, including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and even Australia, “can no longer look for the U.S.A. to be a reliable partner in defense,” he said.
Nowhere are the stakes higher than for Ukraine – the U.S. is by far Kyiv’s biggest military backer as it battles Russian invasion. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, like Rutte, said he welcomed Trump’s “peace through strength” approach.
“This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer,” Zelenskyy wrote on social media. “I am hopeful that we will put it into action together. We look forward to an era of a strong United States of America under President Trump’s decisive leadership.”
No congratulations were forthcoming from Moscow, where President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, declared that Russia-U.S. relations were at the “lowest point in history.”
European congratulations mask deep divisions
European leaders rushed to congratulate Trump even before his victory was officially declared – some more effusively than others.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer called it a historic election victory.
Congratulations President-elect @realDonaldTrump on your historic election victory.
— Keir Starmer (@Keir_Starmer) November 6, 2024
I look forward to working with you in the years ahead. pic.twitter.com/QYHLd4k4EG
Like governments of U.S. allies around the world, Starmer’s center-left administration has worked hard to forge ties with Trump and his team. Starmer had dinner with Trump at Trump Tower in September.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also extended his congratulations to Donald Trump on his re-election as president of the United States.
Congratulations to Donald Trump on being elected President of the United States.
— Justin Trudeau (@JustinTrudeau) November 6, 2024
The friendship between Canada and the U.S. is the envy of the world. I know President Trump and I will work together to create more opportunity, prosperity, and security for both of our nations. pic.twitter.com/yEnL6gxyzO
France’s centrist President Emmanuel Macron offered congratulations, “respect and ambition.” Social democratic German Chancellor Olaf Scholz congratulated Trump and said he wanted continued close ties, even if “surely many things will be different under a Donald Trump-led administration.”
Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni, whose far right-led government is in some ways close to Trump politically, said Italy and the U.S. had a “strategic bond, which I am sure we will now strengthen even more.”
European leaders are keen to stress that the trans-Atlantic relationship transcends individual politicians, but Trump’s protectionist economic leanings are causing concern. During his last term he slapped tariffs on European steel and aluminum, roiling the bloc’s economy.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stressed that the EU and the U.S. "are bound by a true partnership between our people, uniting 800 million citizens. Let us work together on a transatlantic partnership that continues to deliver for our citizens.”
Europe’s populist politicians, meanwhile, welcomed the victory of a politician they consider a kindred spirit.
“They threatened him with prison, they took his property, they wanted to kill him ... and he still won,” said Hungary’s nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
On Thursday, Orbán, will hold a summit in Budapest for some 50 other European leaders – many of whom feel much more apprehensive about the impact of a second Trump presidency on Europe’s economy and security.
A Middle East in turmoil awaits Trump’s moves
During his first term, Trump pushed to remake the Middle East by reconciling Israel and Saudi Arabia, and all eyes now are on how he intervenes in the region’s raging conflicts between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Trump’s election win “history’s greatest comeback.”
“Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America. This is a huge victory!” he wrote on social media.
Trump and Netanyahu – a fellow conservative nationalist -- had a tight relationship during the former president’s first term, but the ties soured when Netanyahu congratulated President Joe Biden for winning in 2020.
Netanyahu’s inner circle hopes Trump will allow Israel free rein against its enemies, but the president-elect is famously unpredictable, and the Israeli leader faces strong opposition at home. On Tuesday he fired popular Defense Minister Yoav Gallant amid divisions over the conduct of the war, a surprise announcement that sparked protests across the country.
Hamas issued a terse statement saying “our position on the new U.S. administration depends on its positions and practical behavior towards our Palestinian people, their legitimate rights and their just cause.”< Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Trump and spoke to the great friendship they have.
Heartiest congratulations my friend @realDonaldTrump on your historic election victory. As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership. Together,… pic.twitter.com/u5hKPeJ3SY
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) November 6, 2024
Washington is one of the key mediators of so-far unsuccessful Gaza cease-fire talks and has publicly accused Hamas of turning down several deals. Hamas has denied this, instead blaming Israel for demanding last minute changes to the proposals.
The challenge of China still looms.
There was no immediate reaction from the Chinese government to Trump’s victory, but analysts were pessimistic, citing the likelihood of escalating tariffs and an intensifying confrontation over Taiwan.
“It is not all dark, but there are more challenges than opportunities,” said Da Wei, director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “We are clear about the challenges. As for opportunities, we are yet to see them clearly.”
Long-seething territorial disputes in the South China Sea are a delicate fault line in the U.S.-China rivalry in Asia and likely will remain a major foreign policy concern for the next American president.
U.S. allies in Asia, apprehensive about China’s growing clout, clamored for Trump’s attention in congratulatory messages.
“I hope to closely cooperate with President-elect Trump to further elevate Japan-U.S. alliance and relations to even higher levels,” Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba told reporters, saying he hoped to speak to the president-elect soon.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol wrote on X: “Under your strong leadership, the future of the ROK-U.S. alliance and America will shine brighter,” using the initials of South Korea’s formal name, the Republic of Korea. “Look forward to working closely with you.”
Tensions between the Koreas are at their highest point in years as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has repeatedly flaunted his expanding nuclear weapons and missile programs, while providing Russia with munitions and troops to support its war in Ukraine.
