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Donald Trump Says, 'It's Over,' He's The Republican Nominee: Here's What The Math Says

The Canadian Press, 27 Apr, 2016 11:38 AM
    WASHINGTON — Donald Trump has taken a giant step down the path to the presidential nomination — so sizeable, in fact, that he's already declared himself at the finish line.
     
    "It's over. As far as I'm concerned, it's over," Trump told a rally Tuesday, urging his rivals, Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, to quit the Republican race.
     
    "I consider myself the presumptive nominee — absolutely."
     
    There's no question he dominated Tuesday.
     
    In a series of primaries in five northeastern states, he vastly outperformed the polls and won Connecticut by 30 percentage points; Delaware by 40; Rhode Island by 19; Pennsylvania by 26 and Maryland by 32.
     
    He accumulated so many delegates that his chances of being crowned the Republican nominee without having to fight for it at the convention have grown — from remote, to very possible.
     
    But his act of self-coronation skipped some inconvenient facts.
     
    The first is that he has about 950 delegates; he requires 1,237 to win on the first ballot at the convention. That means he needs more than half of the 500 or so remaining.
     
    The second involves geography. Trump has been dominant in the east — sweeping the old south and also the northern states home to the so-called Reagan Democrats of the white, Catholic working class.
     
    But most of the upcoming races are in the west where Cruz has dominated.
     
     
    A key prize is Indiana next week.
     
    It's one of the few remaining states up for grabs that offers an instant bloc of delegates to whoever wins the popular vote. If Trump wins there, then performs as well in California in June as he has in the latest polls, he'll almost certainly become the nominee.
     
    If he falters in either place, the Republican race is headed toward a messy, multi-ballot affair unlike anything seen in U.S. politics in over a half-century.
     
    His chief rival summed up the state of play: "The eyes of the nation are now gazing upon Indiana to make a decision for our country," Cruz tweeted Tuesday.
     
    Trump has an early endorsement jump in the basketball-loving state. He's received the backing of retired controversial, colourful college coach Bobby Knight.
     
    Before heading to Indiana, however, he's hoping to sway some skeptics in Washington.
     
    Trump will read a rare, scripted speech laying out his foreign policy. It comes after weeks rife with evidence that he's trying to tone down his showmanship in an effort to be taken seriously.
     
    But he isn't toning it down entirely. He illustrated as much this week by delivering an extended riff on how disgusted he was to watch his opponent, Kasich, eating in photo ops.
     
     
    A report in Politico also suggested he's annoyed that a senior figure in his campaign has been telling party brass that Trump is merely role-playing and will change in the general election.
     
    "I am me," he said Tuesday. 
     
    "I'm not playing a part...
     
    "I've had many, many people write in, tweet in,... call in (saying), 'Please don't change, please don't change. Just stay the way you are.' Look, I'm not changing. I went to the best schools. I'm, like, a very smart person. I'm going to represent our country with dignity."
     
    The billionaire said he'll obviously speak differently in a boardroom that he does at a rally addressing 25,000 people. But, he said, he'd be espousing similar beliefs in both places.
     
    On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has all but locked up the nomination. She won four out of five states Tuesday, adding to her already imposing delegate lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders.
     
     
    She spent most of her speech going after the Republicans. She also made an appeal for party unity, applauding Sanders and his millions of supporters for fighting to remove money from politics.
     
    Sanders, meanwhile, vowed to keep fighting.
     
    As the prospect of actual victory fades, his objective now might be to influence the party. In a statement Tuesday, he referred to his desire to shape the Democratic platform.
     
    "We are in this race until the last vote is cast," Sanders said.
     
    "This campaign is going to the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia with as many delegates as possible to fight for a progressive party platform."
     
    He referred to a $15 an hour minimum wage; a reversal of trade policies; public health care; breaking up big banks; ending oil fracking; free public-college tuition; and a carbon tax.

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