Close X
Sunday, November 24, 2024
ADVT 
India

For 3rd consecutive year, India’s nominal GDP growth will be strongest in Asia

Darpan News Desk IANS, 16 Jan, 2024 01:50 PM
  • For 3rd consecutive year, India’s nominal GDP growth will be strongest in Asia

New Delhi, Jan 16 (IANS) India’s nominal GDP growth will accelerate to 11.6 per cent this year versus 9.2 per cent in 2023, making it the third consecutive year that the country’s nominal GDP growth will be the strongest in Asia, according to a Morgan Stanley report.

Within Asia, India offers a compelling opportunity from a domestic demand alpha standpoint, the report said.

India’s contribution to Asian and global growth will rise to 30 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively, up from 28 per cent and 16 per cent in 2023. Over the medium term, real GDP growth will average 6.3 per cent until F32.

The report pointed to initial signs of rural consumption improving. There are now some signs that the broader consumption recovery in volume terms picked up pace in 4Q23, helped in part by firming rural demand.

Consumer durable goods production growth has strengthened to a 17-month high of 5.3 per centY during the October-November festive period.

Passenger vehicle sales growth accelerated to 27 per centY in Oct-Nov, vs. 22 per centY in 3Q. Importantly, two-wheeler sales growth has picked up to 26 per centY in Oct-Nov (vs. a weak -2 per centY in 3Q), indicating that rural demand is now joining in the recovery. This is also corroborated by fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sales volume data which shows rural volume growth has accelerated to 6.4 per centY in 3Q23, vs. 4.0 per cent%Y in 2Q23 and just 0.3 per centY in 1Q23.

The effects of the policy push on supply side reforms have already been reflected in very strong outturns in public capex so far.

“We see the next phase of the capex cycle and indeed the expansion to be sustained by a pickup in private capex which will uplift and sustain productivity growth,” the report said.

Capex is accelerating as real GFCF growth has already accelerated to 11 per centY in 3Q23, much higher than the 2019-22 average of 6.2 per centY and also above the pre-covid 2017-18 average of 9.6 per centY.

In terms of the high frequency data that we have been monitoring, the incoming data continues to paint a positive picture on the current trends in capex.

Public capex has been strong with the Central government’s capex to GDP ratio rising to 3 per cent, an 18-year high.

Moreover, state-level capex data for 19 states show a renewed acceleration in state capex growth. On a 4Q trailing sum basis, private projects under implementation data is also rising to 18.5 per centY in 4Q23, up from an already strong 16.8 per cent in 3Q23.

FDI data has also risen in Oct-23.

"Finally, our India economics team’s proprietary capex indicator shows that the count of capex mentions by companies continued to accelerate for five consecutive quarters, rising to its all-time high in 2Q23," Morgan Stanley said.

 

MORE India ARTICLES

BJP wants to take credit for Women’s Reservation Bill: Punjab Congress leader Bajwa

BJP wants to take credit for Women’s Reservation Bill: Punjab Congress leader Bajwa
Bajwa said the BJP must know that “the Women’s Reservation Bill is the brainchild of the Congress”. It was former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi who in May 1989 introduced the Constitution Amendment Bill to provide one-third reservation for women in rural and urban local bodies.

BJP wants to take credit for Women’s Reservation Bill: Punjab Congress leader Bajwa

Bus falls into canal in Punjab; five killed, two missing

Bus falls into canal in Punjab; five killed, two missing
Five passengers were killed and 10 others injured when a private bus lost control and fell into the Sirhind feeder canal on the Muktsar-Kotkapura highway while crossing a bridge in Punjab's Muktsar on Tuesday, police said. Two people were reportedly missing.

Bus falls into canal in Punjab; five killed, two missing

'Absurd, motivated': India rejects Canada's allegations over killing of Hardeep Nijjar

'Absurd, motivated': India rejects Canada's allegations over killing of Hardeep Nijjar
India on Tuesday rejected claims by the Canada government that it had an involvement in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Terming them as "absurd and motivated" the external affairs ministry in a statement said, "We have seen and reject the statement of the Canadian Prime Minister in their Parliament, as also the statement by their Foreign Minister. Allegations of Government of India's involvement in any act of violence in Canada are absurd and motivated."

'Absurd, motivated': India rejects Canada's allegations over killing of Hardeep Nijjar

Inter-state drug trafficker held with heroin worth Rs 1.5 cr in Delhi

Inter-state drug trafficker held with heroin worth Rs 1.5 cr in Delhi
Delhi Police’s Crime Branch has arrested an inter-state drug trafficker and recovered 1.5 kg of heroin worth over Rs 1.5 crore in the international market. The drug trafficker was identified as Juned Khan alias Juber, (31), a resident of Bilaspur in Uttar Pradesh, a police officer said on Tuesday.

Inter-state drug trafficker held with heroin worth Rs 1.5 cr in Delhi

After asking local staffers to leave office early, Canadian High Commission to resume work at scheduled hours on Wednesday

After asking local staffers to leave office early, Canadian High Commission to resume work at scheduled hours on Wednesday
Hours after India expelled a Canadian diplomat on Tuesday in a tit-for-tat move in retaliation to Canada's action of expelling an Indian diplomat, the Canadian High Commission in the national capital asked its local staffers to leave the premises during the noon,  sources said. However, in another communication to all the local staffers the embassy informed them about normal timings tomorrow.

After asking local staffers to leave office early, Canadian High Commission to resume work at scheduled hours on Wednesday

Trudeau unfortunately walked into trap, says Amarinder Singh

Trudeau unfortunately walked into trap, says Amarinder Singh
Senior BJP leader and former Punjab Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh on Tuesday dismissed the claims of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that there was an Indian hand in the murder of Khalistani activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Capt Amarinder said the murder was the result of a factional feud within the management of the Guru Nanak Sikh Gurdwara in Surrey in Canada.

Trudeau unfortunately walked into trap, says Amarinder Singh