Close X
Friday, October 4, 2024
ADVT 
India

For 3rd consecutive year, India’s nominal GDP growth will be strongest in Asia

Darpan News Desk IANS, 16 Jan, 2024 01:50 PM
  • For 3rd consecutive year, India’s nominal GDP growth will be strongest in Asia

New Delhi, Jan 16 (IANS) India’s nominal GDP growth will accelerate to 11.6 per cent this year versus 9.2 per cent in 2023, making it the third consecutive year that the country’s nominal GDP growth will be the strongest in Asia, according to a Morgan Stanley report.

Within Asia, India offers a compelling opportunity from a domestic demand alpha standpoint, the report said.

India’s contribution to Asian and global growth will rise to 30 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively, up from 28 per cent and 16 per cent in 2023. Over the medium term, real GDP growth will average 6.3 per cent until F32.

The report pointed to initial signs of rural consumption improving. There are now some signs that the broader consumption recovery in volume terms picked up pace in 4Q23, helped in part by firming rural demand.

Consumer durable goods production growth has strengthened to a 17-month high of 5.3 per centY during the October-November festive period.

Passenger vehicle sales growth accelerated to 27 per centY in Oct-Nov, vs. 22 per centY in 3Q. Importantly, two-wheeler sales growth has picked up to 26 per centY in Oct-Nov (vs. a weak -2 per centY in 3Q), indicating that rural demand is now joining in the recovery. This is also corroborated by fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sales volume data which shows rural volume growth has accelerated to 6.4 per centY in 3Q23, vs. 4.0 per cent%Y in 2Q23 and just 0.3 per centY in 1Q23.

The effects of the policy push on supply side reforms have already been reflected in very strong outturns in public capex so far.

“We see the next phase of the capex cycle and indeed the expansion to be sustained by a pickup in private capex which will uplift and sustain productivity growth,” the report said.

Capex is accelerating as real GFCF growth has already accelerated to 11 per centY in 3Q23, much higher than the 2019-22 average of 6.2 per centY and also above the pre-covid 2017-18 average of 9.6 per centY.

In terms of the high frequency data that we have been monitoring, the incoming data continues to paint a positive picture on the current trends in capex.

Public capex has been strong with the Central government’s capex to GDP ratio rising to 3 per cent, an 18-year high.

Moreover, state-level capex data for 19 states show a renewed acceleration in state capex growth. On a 4Q trailing sum basis, private projects under implementation data is also rising to 18.5 per centY in 4Q23, up from an already strong 16.8 per cent in 3Q23.

FDI data has also risen in Oct-23.

"Finally, our India economics team’s proprietary capex indicator shows that the count of capex mentions by companies continued to accelerate for five consecutive quarters, rising to its all-time high in 2Q23," Morgan Stanley said.

 

MORE India ARTICLES

Nationwide Lockdown Must To Save Millions: Punjab CM Amarinder Singh

Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh on Tuesday termed the 21-day nationwide lockdown announced by the Prime Minister as necessary to save millions of lives from the deadly COVID-19,

Nationwide Lockdown Must To Save Millions: Punjab CM Amarinder Singh

India Led World In Eradicating 2 Pandemics, Should Show The Way: WHO

"India led the world in eradicating two pandemics, small-pox and polio so India has a tremendous capacity," WHO executive director Michael J Ryan said

India Led World In Eradicating 2 Pandemics, Should Show The Way: WHO

Jaan Hai To Jahan Hai: PM Modi Shuts 133 Cr Indians For 21 Days To Save Them From COVID-19

Jaan Hai To Jahan Hai: PM Modi Shuts 133 Cr Indians For 21 Days To Save Them From COVID-19
From the corridors of power in New Delhi to the bylanes of Hyderabad to a village in Nagaland, the entire country shuts down starting 12 a.m. on the intervening night of March 24 and 25.

Jaan Hai To Jahan Hai: PM Modi Shuts 133 Cr Indians For 21 Days To Save Them From COVID-19

84% Indians Believe Govt Is Handling The Outbreak Well

84% Indians Believe Govt Is Handling The Outbreak Well
An astounding 84 per cent of people in India believe that the government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is handling the unprecedented coronavirus outbreak well.

84% Indians Believe Govt Is Handling The Outbreak Well

KLM Flight Finally Lands In Delhi, Passengers Share Video

A day after being denied permission to land in India, a KLM flight with 113 Indians who were stranded in Amsterdam landed in New Delhi on Sunday evening.

KLM Flight Finally Lands In Delhi, Passengers Share Video

Coronavirus: No International Aircraft To Land In India For A Week Starting March 21 Midnight

Coronavirus: No International Aircraft To Land In India For A Week Starting March 21 Midnight
GOM also asked state governments to enforce work from home by private employers expect where employees are engaged in emergency services.    

Coronavirus: No International Aircraft To Land In India For A Week Starting March 21 Midnight