Close X
Saturday, November 23, 2024
ADVT 
India

For 3rd consecutive year, India’s nominal GDP growth will be strongest in Asia

Darpan News Desk IANS, 16 Jan, 2024 01:50 PM
  • For 3rd consecutive year, India’s nominal GDP growth will be strongest in Asia

New Delhi, Jan 16 (IANS) India’s nominal GDP growth will accelerate to 11.6 per cent this year versus 9.2 per cent in 2023, making it the third consecutive year that the country’s nominal GDP growth will be the strongest in Asia, according to a Morgan Stanley report.

Within Asia, India offers a compelling opportunity from a domestic demand alpha standpoint, the report said.

India’s contribution to Asian and global growth will rise to 30 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively, up from 28 per cent and 16 per cent in 2023. Over the medium term, real GDP growth will average 6.3 per cent until F32.

The report pointed to initial signs of rural consumption improving. There are now some signs that the broader consumption recovery in volume terms picked up pace in 4Q23, helped in part by firming rural demand.

Consumer durable goods production growth has strengthened to a 17-month high of 5.3 per centY during the October-November festive period.

Passenger vehicle sales growth accelerated to 27 per centY in Oct-Nov, vs. 22 per centY in 3Q. Importantly, two-wheeler sales growth has picked up to 26 per centY in Oct-Nov (vs. a weak -2 per centY in 3Q), indicating that rural demand is now joining in the recovery. This is also corroborated by fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sales volume data which shows rural volume growth has accelerated to 6.4 per centY in 3Q23, vs. 4.0 per cent%Y in 2Q23 and just 0.3 per centY in 1Q23.

The effects of the policy push on supply side reforms have already been reflected in very strong outturns in public capex so far.

“We see the next phase of the capex cycle and indeed the expansion to be sustained by a pickup in private capex which will uplift and sustain productivity growth,” the report said.

Capex is accelerating as real GFCF growth has already accelerated to 11 per centY in 3Q23, much higher than the 2019-22 average of 6.2 per centY and also above the pre-covid 2017-18 average of 9.6 per centY.

In terms of the high frequency data that we have been monitoring, the incoming data continues to paint a positive picture on the current trends in capex.

Public capex has been strong with the Central government’s capex to GDP ratio rising to 3 per cent, an 18-year high.

Moreover, state-level capex data for 19 states show a renewed acceleration in state capex growth. On a 4Q trailing sum basis, private projects under implementation data is also rising to 18.5 per centY in 4Q23, up from an already strong 16.8 per cent in 3Q23.

FDI data has also risen in Oct-23.

"Finally, our India economics team’s proprietary capex indicator shows that the count of capex mentions by companies continued to accelerate for five consecutive quarters, rising to its all-time high in 2Q23," Morgan Stanley said.

 

MORE India ARTICLES

Gurugram Police unearth Rs 55.86cr cyber crime fraud; 53 held

Gurugram Police unearth Rs 55.86cr cyber crime fraud; 53 held
The Gurugram Police have unearthed cyber fraud of around Rs 55.86 crore in the month of October and arrested 53 people in this connection, the police said on Wednesday. According to the police, 469 cyber fraud cases were registered against 53 suspects across India of which around 22 cases were registered with the Gurugram police.  

Gurugram Police unearth Rs 55.86cr cyber crime fraud; 53 held

We have failed children of Palestine: Priyanka Gandhi on Children's Day

We have failed children of Palestine: Priyanka Gandhi on Children's Day
Congress General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi, who has been critical of killings of the civilians and children in the Israel-Hamas war on the occasion of Children’s day again reiterated her demand to bring an end to the “horrendous violence” and said that we have “failed” the thousands of children that are being massacred in Palestine every moment. 

We have failed children of Palestine: Priyanka Gandhi on Children's Day

Tunnel collapse: Some trapped workers speak to their kin through pipe

Tunnel collapse: Some trapped workers speak to their kin through pipe
As rescue operations to save 40 labourers trapped in an under-construction tunnel in Uttarakhand's Uttarkashi district continued for the third day on Tuesday, the police facilitated their contact with their anxious kin through a pipe. Uttarkashi Police's CO Prashant Kumar, in a bid to bolster the trapped men's spirits, made arrangements for some of them to talk to their families through this mechanism.  

Tunnel collapse: Some trapped workers speak to their kin through pipe

Sahara Group founder Subrata Roy passes away at 75 after prolonged illness

Sahara Group founder Subrata Roy passes away at 75 after prolonged illness
'Saharasri' Subarata Roy, the founder of Sahara India Pariwar, breathed his last on Tuesday following a cardiac arrest after a prolonged illness. He was 75. Mourning the demise of Roy, the Sahara India Group said in a statement, "With profound sadness, the Sahara India Pariwar informs the demise of our ‘Saharasri’ Subrata Roy Sahara, Managing Worker and Chairman, Sahara India Pariwar.

Sahara Group founder Subrata Roy passes away at 75 after prolonged illness

13 people, including 10 kids, in Rajasthan lose eyesight due to firecracker accidents

13 people, including 10 kids, in Rajasthan lose eyesight due to firecracker accidents
A total of 13 people, including 10 children, across several cities of Rajasthan including Jaipur, Jhunjhunu, and Bharatpur lost sight in at least one eye while bursting firecrackers on Diwali, doctors said. This figure was reported after three days of surgery in the eye department of Sawai Mansingh (SMS) Hospital here, with the patients suffering damage to their cornea and retina.

13 people, including 10 kids, in Rajasthan lose eyesight due to firecracker accidents

Punjab: Passengers vandalise Sirhind Rly station over cancellation of Bihar-bound special train

Punjab: Passengers vandalise Sirhind Rly station over cancellation of Bihar-bound special train
According to Northern Railway officials, some angry passengers reportedly pelted stones after they came to know that the train which was supposed to leave for Katihar was cancelled. Meanwhile, Northern Railway CPRO Deepak Kumar said that connecting rake got delayed and the train was put back at 3 a.m. He said that regular announcements have been made at the railway station.  

Punjab: Passengers vandalise Sirhind Rly station over cancellation of Bihar-bound special train