Close X
Sunday, November 10, 2024
ADVT 
India

For 3rd consecutive year, India’s nominal GDP growth will be strongest in Asia

Darpan News Desk IANS, 16 Jan, 2024 01:50 PM
  • For 3rd consecutive year, India’s nominal GDP growth will be strongest in Asia

New Delhi, Jan 16 (IANS) India’s nominal GDP growth will accelerate to 11.6 per cent this year versus 9.2 per cent in 2023, making it the third consecutive year that the country’s nominal GDP growth will be the strongest in Asia, according to a Morgan Stanley report.

Within Asia, India offers a compelling opportunity from a domestic demand alpha standpoint, the report said.

India’s contribution to Asian and global growth will rise to 30 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively, up from 28 per cent and 16 per cent in 2023. Over the medium term, real GDP growth will average 6.3 per cent until F32.

The report pointed to initial signs of rural consumption improving. There are now some signs that the broader consumption recovery in volume terms picked up pace in 4Q23, helped in part by firming rural demand.

Consumer durable goods production growth has strengthened to a 17-month high of 5.3 per centY during the October-November festive period.

Passenger vehicle sales growth accelerated to 27 per centY in Oct-Nov, vs. 22 per centY in 3Q. Importantly, two-wheeler sales growth has picked up to 26 per centY in Oct-Nov (vs. a weak -2 per centY in 3Q), indicating that rural demand is now joining in the recovery. This is also corroborated by fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sales volume data which shows rural volume growth has accelerated to 6.4 per centY in 3Q23, vs. 4.0 per cent%Y in 2Q23 and just 0.3 per centY in 1Q23.

The effects of the policy push on supply side reforms have already been reflected in very strong outturns in public capex so far.

“We see the next phase of the capex cycle and indeed the expansion to be sustained by a pickup in private capex which will uplift and sustain productivity growth,” the report said.

Capex is accelerating as real GFCF growth has already accelerated to 11 per centY in 3Q23, much higher than the 2019-22 average of 6.2 per centY and also above the pre-covid 2017-18 average of 9.6 per centY.

In terms of the high frequency data that we have been monitoring, the incoming data continues to paint a positive picture on the current trends in capex.

Public capex has been strong with the Central government’s capex to GDP ratio rising to 3 per cent, an 18-year high.

Moreover, state-level capex data for 19 states show a renewed acceleration in state capex growth. On a 4Q trailing sum basis, private projects under implementation data is also rising to 18.5 per centY in 4Q23, up from an already strong 16.8 per cent in 3Q23.

FDI data has also risen in Oct-23.

"Finally, our India economics team’s proprietary capex indicator shows that the count of capex mentions by companies continued to accelerate for five consecutive quarters, rising to its all-time high in 2Q23," Morgan Stanley said.

 

MORE India ARTICLES

Delhi’s air quality continues to be in ‘very poor’ category

Delhi’s air quality continues to be in ‘very poor’ category
The overall air quality in Delhi continued to be in the ‘very poor' category with the AQI at 388 on Thursday evening, according to data from the System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting And Research (SAFAR).

Delhi’s air quality continues to be in ‘very poor’ category

Taj Hotel's data breached, around 1.5mn customers at risk

Taj Hotel's data breached, around 1.5mn customers at risk
Around 1.5 million people may have had their personal information compromised in a recent data breach at Taj Hotels, owned by Tata, as per reports. However, Delhi Police is yet to confirm if they have received any complaint from the Taj Group.

Taj Hotel's data breached, around 1.5mn customers at risk

Sukhbir seeks PM Modi's intervention in appointment of Sikhs as judge

Sukhbir seeks PM Modi's intervention in appointment of Sikhs as judge
Badal urged the Prime Minister to get the injustice and communal discrimination against Sikhs stopped by personally intervening in the matter. In his letter, Badal described the issue as one of "great sensitivity".

Sukhbir seeks PM Modi's intervention in appointment of Sikhs as judge

IndiGo flight lands in Karachi due to medical emergency; passenger declared dead on arrival

IndiGo flight lands in Karachi due to medical emergency; passenger declared dead on arrival
An IndiGo flight enroute Hyderabad from Jeddah faced a medical emergency that ended rather tragically after a passenger on board fell ill.  Acting swiftly, the pilot diverted the flight to Karachi to seek immediate medical attention for the affected passenger. Upon landing in Karachi, a doctor promptly attended to the passenger, but despite the efforts, the person could not be saved as he was declared dead on arrival.

IndiGo flight lands in Karachi due to medical emergency; passenger declared dead on arrival

India absent at voting on UNGA resolution on 'better world through sports'

India absent at voting on UNGA resolution on 'better world through sports'
Two days after the Cricket World Cup final, India has absented itself from voting on a General Assembly resolution on sports promoting "understanding among peoples and nations". Being absent during the voting on Tuesday does not amount to a formal abstention as it is not put on record.

India absent at voting on UNGA resolution on 'better world through sports'

Targeted killings in Punjab: Three ISI-controlled module members held

Targeted killings in Punjab: Three ISI-controlled module members held
Those arrested have been identified as Rajbhupinder Singh, alias Bhinda, of Dikh Village in Bathinda, Raman Kumar of Guru Harsahai Village in Fazilka District and Jagjit Singh of Dhilwa Kalan in Kotkapura. Police teams have recovered eight pistols, including three .30 bore pistols and five .32 bore pistols, besides nine magazines and 30 cartridges from their possession.  

Targeted killings in Punjab: Three ISI-controlled module members held